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Sreenidi Deccan vs Shillong Lajong — I-League 2019

Sreenidi Deccan
Sreenidi Deccan
FT
5 – 5
HT: 2 – 3
Shillong Lajong
Shillong Lajong
1/18/2025I-LeagueI-League · Round 9Deccan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sreenidi Deccan52%
×Draw22%
Shillong Lajong26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sreenidi Deccan
1.98
Shillong Lajong
1.34

Sreenidi Deccan creates 48% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sreenidi Deccan
1.96
Shillong Lajong
1.47

allows per match

Sreenidi Deccan
1.22
Shillong Lajong
2.00

finishing

Sreenidi Deccan+0.00on par
Shillong Lajong+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sreenidi Deccan ↓

Shillong Lajong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sreenidi Deccan or draw
74%
Sreenidi Deccan or Shillong Lajong
78%
Draw or Shillong Lajong
48%

Winning margin

Sreenidi Deccan wins by 2+
30%
Shillong Lajong wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sreenidi Deccan 1+ goals
86%
Sreenidi Deccan 2+ goals
59%
Sreenidi Deccan 3+ goals
31%
Shillong Lajong 1+ goals
74%
Shillong Lajong 2+ goals
39%
Shillong Lajong 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sreenidi Deccan (draw refunded)
67%
Shillong Lajong (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sreenidi Deccan at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.22 · 49 matches

Shillong Lajong away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sreenidi Deccan attack 1.96 + Shillong Lajong defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Shillong Lajong attack 1.47 + Sreenidi Deccan defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sreenidi Deccan scores more
52%
level
22%
Shillong Lajong scores more
26%

Sreenidi Deccan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sreenidi Deccan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sreenidi Deccan vs Shillong Lajong

Sreenidi Deccan and Shillong Lajong drew 5-5 in I-League on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Deccan Arena in Hyderabad.