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Sreenidi Deccan vs NEROCA — I-League 2019

Sreenidi Deccan
Sreenidi Deccan
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
NEROCA
NEROCA
10/29/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 1Deccan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sreenidi Deccan56%
×Draw21%
NEROCA22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sreenidi Deccan
2.04
NEROCA
1.21

Sreenidi Deccan creates 69% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sreenidi Deccan
1.96
NEROCA
1.20

allows per match

Sreenidi Deccan
1.22
NEROCA
2.11

finishing

Sreenidi Deccan+0.00on par
NEROCA+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sreenidi Deccan ↓

NEROCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sreenidi Deccan or draw
78%
Sreenidi Deccan or NEROCA
79%
Draw or NEROCA
44%

Winning margin

Sreenidi Deccan wins by 2+
34%
NEROCA wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sreenidi Deccan 1+ goals
87%
Sreenidi Deccan 2+ goals
60%
Sreenidi Deccan 3+ goals
33%
NEROCA 1+ goals
70%
NEROCA 2+ goals
34%
NEROCA 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sreenidi Deccan (draw refunded)
72%
NEROCA (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sreenidi Deccan at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.22 · 49 matches

NEROCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sreenidi Deccan attack 1.96 + NEROCA defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.04

NEROCA attack 1.20 + Sreenidi Deccan defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sreenidi Deccan scores more
56%
level
21%
NEROCA scores more
22%

Sreenidi Deccan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sreenidi Deccan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Sreenidi Deccan 4–0 NEROCA

Sreenidi Deccan beat NEROCA 4-0 in I-League on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Deccan Arena in Hyderabad.