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Sreenidi Deccan vs Namdhari — I-League 2019

Sreenidi Deccan
Sreenidi Deccan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Namdhari
Namdhari
3/2/2025I-LeagueI-League · Round 17Deccan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sreenidi Deccan49%
×Draw24%
Namdhari27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sreenidi Deccan
1.75
Namdhari
1.25

Sreenidi Deccan creates 40% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sreenidi Deccan
1.96
Namdhari
1.27

allows per match

Sreenidi Deccan
1.22
Namdhari
1.53

finishing

Sreenidi Deccan+0.00on par
Namdhari+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sreenidi Deccan ↓

Namdhari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sreenidi Deccan or draw
73%
Sreenidi Deccan or Namdhari
76%
Draw or Namdhari
51%

Winning margin

Sreenidi Deccan wins by 2+
27%
Namdhari wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sreenidi Deccan 1+ goals
83%
Sreenidi Deccan 2+ goals
52%
Sreenidi Deccan 3+ goals
25%
Namdhari 1+ goals
71%
Namdhari 2+ goals
36%
Namdhari 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sreenidi Deccan (draw refunded)
64%
Namdhari (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sreenidi Deccan at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.22 · 49 matches

Namdhari away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sreenidi Deccan attack 1.96 + Namdhari defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.75

Namdhari attack 1.27 + Sreenidi Deccan defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sreenidi Deccan scores more
49%
level
24%
Namdhari scores more
27%

Sreenidi Deccan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sreenidi Deccan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Sreenidi Deccan 0–1 Namdhari

Namdhari beat Sreenidi Deccan 1-0 in I-League on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Deccan Arena in Hyderabad.