Sreenidi Deccan 1–4 Gokulam: Result & Stats

Sreenidi Deccan

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Gokulam

12/19/2023

I-League · Round 12Deccan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Sreenidi Deccan41%

×Draw24%

Gokulam35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sreenidi DeccanExpected goals in this matchGokulam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.44

Sreenidi Deccan

1.59

Gokulam

1.44

Sreenidi Deccan creates 10% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 65 away

1.96

creates per match

1.66

1.22

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Sreenidi Deccan

1.96

Gokulam

1.66

allows per match

Sreenidi Deccan

1.22

Gokulam

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sreenidi Deccan+0.00on par

Gokulam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sreenidi Deccan ↓

Gokulam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sreenidi Deccan or draw

65%

Sreenidi Deccan or Gokulam

76%

Draw or Gokulam

59%

Winning margin

Sreenidi Deccan wins by 2+

21%

Gokulam wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sreenidi Deccan 1+ goals

80%

Sreenidi Deccan 2+ goals

47%

Sreenidi Deccan 3+ goals

21%

Gokulam 1+ goals

76%

Gokulam 2+ goals

42%

Gokulam 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sreenidi Deccan (draw refunded)

54%

Gokulam (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sreenidi Deccan at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.22 · 49 matches

Gokulam away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.22 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sreenidi Deccan attack 1.96 + Gokulam defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.59

Gokulam attack 1.66 + Sreenidi Deccan defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sreenidi Deccan scores more

41%

level

24%

Gokulam scores more

35%

Sreenidi Deccan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sreenidi Deccan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff