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Sreenidi Deccan vs Delhi FC — I-League 2019

Sreenidi Deccan
Sreenidi Deccan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Delhi FC
Delhi FC
12/11/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 10Deccan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sreenidi Deccan50%
×Draw22%
Delhi FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sreenidi Deccan
1.96
Delhi FC
1.44

Sreenidi Deccan creates 36% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 23 away

creates per match

Sreenidi Deccan
1.96
Delhi FC
1.65

allows per match

Sreenidi Deccan
1.22
Delhi FC
1.96

finishing

Sreenidi Deccan+0.00on par
Delhi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sreenidi Deccan ↓

Delhi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sreenidi Deccan or draw
72%
Sreenidi Deccan or Delhi FC
78%
Draw or Delhi FC
50%

Winning margin

Sreenidi Deccan wins by 2+
28%
Delhi FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sreenidi Deccan 1+ goals
86%
Sreenidi Deccan 2+ goals
58%
Sreenidi Deccan 3+ goals
31%
Delhi FC 1+ goals
76%
Delhi FC 2+ goals
42%
Delhi FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sreenidi Deccan (draw refunded)
64%
Delhi FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sreenidi Deccan at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.22 · 49 matches

Delhi FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sreenidi Deccan attack 1.96 + Delhi FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.96

Delhi FC attack 1.65 + Sreenidi Deccan defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sreenidi Deccan scores more
50%
level
22%
Delhi FC scores more
28%

Sreenidi Deccan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sreenidi Deccan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sreenidi Deccan vs Delhi FC

Sreenidi Deccan beat Delhi FC 1-0 in I-League on December 11, 2023.

The match was played at Deccan Arena in Hyderabad.