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SR vs ÍBU — Cup 2019

SR
SR
FT
2 – 0
ÍBU
ÍBU
6/7/2020CupCup · 1st RoundEimskipsvöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

SR57%
×Draw17%
ÍBU26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SR
3.46
ÍBU
2.40

SR creates 44% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

SR
1.43
ÍBU
1.50

allows per match

SR
3.29
ÍBU
5.50

finishing

SR+0.00on par
ÍBU+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SR ↓

ÍBU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
82%18%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

SR or draw
74%
SR or ÍBU
83%
Draw or ÍBU
43%

Winning margin

SR wins by 2+
39%
ÍBU wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SR 1+ goals
97%
SR 2+ goals
85%
SR 3+ goals
65%
ÍBU 1+ goals
91%
ÍBU 2+ goals
69%
ÍBU 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

SR (draw refunded)
68%
ÍBU (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
85%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SR at home — creates 1.43, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

ÍBU away — creates 1.50, concedes 5.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SR attack 1.43 + ÍBU defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 3.46

ÍBU attack 1.50 + SR defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SR scores more
57%
level
17%
ÍBU scores more
26%

SR at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: SR 2–0 ÍBU

SR beat ÍBU 2-0 in Cup on June 7, 2020.

The match was played at Eimskipsvöllurinn in Reykjavík.