SpVgg Unterhaching 1–1 Türkgücü-Ataspor

SpVgg Unterhaching

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Türkgücü-Ataspor

2/14/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SpVgg Unterhaching36%

×Draw21%

Türkgücü-Ataspor43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg UnterhachingExpected goals in this matchTürkgücü-Ataspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

2.05

SpVgg Unterhaching

1.88

Türkgücü-Ataspor

2.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.56

creates per match

2.00

2.11

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

SpVgg Unterhaching

2.56

Türkgücü-Ataspor

2.00

allows per match

SpVgg Unterhaching

2.11

Türkgücü-Ataspor

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SpVgg Unterhaching+0.00on par

Türkgücü-Ataspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Unterhaching ↓

Türkgücü-Ataspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

SpVgg Unterhaching or draw

57%

SpVgg Unterhaching or Türkgücü-Ataspor

79%

Draw or Türkgücü-Ataspor

64%

Winning margin

SpVgg Unterhaching wins by 2+

19%

Türkgücü-Ataspor wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

SpVgg Unterhaching 1+ goals

85%

SpVgg Unterhaching 2+ goals

56%

SpVgg Unterhaching 3+ goals

29%

Türkgücü-Ataspor 1+ goals

87%

Türkgücü-Ataspor 2+ goals

61%

Türkgücü-Ataspor 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Unterhaching (draw refunded)

46%

Türkgücü-Ataspor (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Unterhaching at home — creates 2.56, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

Türkgücü-Ataspor away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Unterhaching attack 2.56 + Türkgücü-Ataspor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.88

Türkgücü-Ataspor attack 2.00 + SpVgg Unterhaching defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SpVgg Unterhaching scores more

36%

level

21%

Türkgücü-Ataspor scores more

43%

Türkgücü-Ataspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Türkgücü-Ataspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff