SpVgg Unterhaching 4–1 SCR Altach: Result & Stats

SpVgg Unterhaching

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

SCR Altach

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportpark Unterhaching Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

SpVgg Unterhaching47%

×Draw21%

SCR Altach32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg UnterhachingExpected goals in this matchSCR Altach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.76

SpVgg Unterhaching

2.16

SCR Altach

1.76

SpVgg Unterhaching creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

2.86

creates per match

1.38

2.14

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

SpVgg Unterhaching

2.86

SCR Altach

1.38

allows per match

SpVgg Unterhaching

2.14

SCR Altach

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SpVgg Unterhaching+0.00on par

SCR Altach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Unterhaching ↓

SCR Altach →

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

SpVgg Unterhaching or draw

68%

SpVgg Unterhaching or SCR Altach

79%

Draw or SCR Altach

53%

Winning margin

SpVgg Unterhaching wins by 2+

27%

SCR Altach wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SpVgg Unterhaching 1+ goals

88%

SpVgg Unterhaching 2+ goals

63%

SpVgg Unterhaching 3+ goals

36%

SCR Altach 1+ goals

83%

SCR Altach 2+ goals

52%

SCR Altach 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Unterhaching (draw refunded)

60%

SCR Altach (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Unterhaching at home — creates 2.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

SCR Altach away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Unterhaching attack 2.86 + SCR Altach defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.16

SCR Altach attack 1.38 + SpVgg Unterhaching defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

SpVgg Unterhaching scores more

47%

level

21%

SCR Altach scores more

32%

SpVgg Unterhaching at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SpVgg Unterhaching will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff