SpVgg Unterhaching 1–1 Pipinsried: Result & Stats

SpVgg Unterhaching

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Pipinsried

P. Hobsch 38'

N. Jelisic 72'

8/27/2021

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 10Alpenbauer Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

SpVgg Unterhaching62%

×Draw20%

Pipinsried18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg UnterhachingExpected goals in this matchPipinsried

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.06

SpVgg Unterhaching

2.17

Pipinsried

1.06

SpVgg Unterhaching creates 105% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 38 away

2.18

creates per match

1.08

1.04

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

SpVgg Unterhaching

2.18

Pipinsried

1.08

allows per match

SpVgg Unterhaching

1.04

Pipinsried

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SpVgg Unterhaching+0.00on par

Pipinsried+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Unterhaching ↓

Pipinsried →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

SpVgg Unterhaching or draw

82%

SpVgg Unterhaching or Pipinsried

80%

Draw or Pipinsried

38%

Winning margin

SpVgg Unterhaching wins by 2+

39%

Pipinsried wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

SpVgg Unterhaching 1+ goals

89%

SpVgg Unterhaching 2+ goals

64%

SpVgg Unterhaching 3+ goals

36%

Pipinsried 1+ goals

65%

Pipinsried 2+ goals

29%

Pipinsried 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Unterhaching (draw refunded)

78%

Pipinsried (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Unterhaching at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.04 · 55 matches

Pipinsried away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.16 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Unterhaching attack 2.18 + Pipinsried defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.17

Pipinsried attack 1.08 + SpVgg Unterhaching defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

SpVgg Unterhaching scores more

62%

level

20%

Pipinsried scores more

18%

SpVgg Unterhaching at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "SpVgg Unterhaching will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

P. Hobsch

46'

A. Gashi← P. Pigl

67'

D. Hausmann← S. Porta

72'

N. Jelisic

79'

J. Turtschan← J. Richter

81'

E. Emirgan← A. Langen

88'

F. Göttlicher← T. Obermeier

90+3'

M. Koch← S. Imsak

SpVgg

Pipinsried

1

Eiban

7

▼

Pigl

29

▼

30

36

22

20

⚽

5

6

17

9

▼

1

4

23

33

19

37

▼

Richter

27

▼

Porta

38

Mashigo

15

▼

Obermeier

9

Hain

34

⚽

Hobsch

Manager: S. Wagner

67'▲D. Hausmann←▼S. Porta

79'▲J. Turtschan←▼J. Richter

88'▲F. Göttlicher←▼T. Obermeier

SpVgg Unterhaching substitutes

43Hausmann28Turtschan14Göttlicher5Welzmüller8Stiefler21Zimmermann45Heilmair

Manager: A. Thomas

46'▲A. Gashi←▼P. Pigl

81'▲E. Emirgan←▼A. Langen

90+3'▲M. Koch←▼S. Imsak

Pipinsried substitutes

11Gashi21Emirgan8Koch93Orbán19Cipolla

Regionalliga - Bayern: SpVgg Unterhaching 1–1 Pipinsried

SpVgg Unterhaching and Pipinsried drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on August 27, 2021.

Goals: P. Hobsch (38'), N. Jelisic (72').

The match was played at Alpenbauer Sportpark in Unterhaching.

SpVgg Unterhaching vs Pipinsried — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Regionalliga - Bayern: SpVgg Unterhaching 1–1 Pipinsried