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SpVgg Unterhaching vs Chemnitzer FC — League #80 2026

SpVgg Unterhaching
SpVgg Unterhaching
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Chemnitzer FC
Chemnitzer FC
S. Hain 65' (pen), 19'
D. Stahl 45+3'
T. Scheffel 34' (OG)
M. Slavov 61', 35'
8/26/2017League #80League #80 · Round 6Generali Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SpVgg Unterhaching55%
×Draw23%
Chemnitzer FC23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SpVgg Unterhaching
1.88
Chemnitzer FC
1.13

SpVgg Unterhaching creates 66% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

SpVgg Unterhaching
1.75
Chemnitzer FC
1.00

allows per match

SpVgg Unterhaching
1.25
Chemnitzer FC
2.00

finishing

SpVgg Unterhaching+0.00on par
Chemnitzer FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Unterhaching ↓

Chemnitzer FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SpVgg Unterhaching or draw
77%
SpVgg Unterhaching or Chemnitzer FC
77%
Draw or Chemnitzer FC
45%

Winning margin

SpVgg Unterhaching wins by 2+
31%
Chemnitzer FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SpVgg Unterhaching 1+ goals
85%
SpVgg Unterhaching 2+ goals
56%
SpVgg Unterhaching 3+ goals
29%
Chemnitzer FC 1+ goals
68%
Chemnitzer FC 2+ goals
31%
Chemnitzer FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Unterhaching (draw refunded)
71%
Chemnitzer FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Unterhaching at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Chemnitzer FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Unterhaching attack 1.75 + Chemnitzer FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Chemnitzer FC attack 1.00 + SpVgg Unterhaching defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SpVgg Unterhaching scores more
55%
level
23%
Chemnitzer FC scores more
23%

SpVgg Unterhaching at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SpVgg Unterhaching will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
S. Hain↳ S. Bigalke
34'
T. ScheffelOwn goal
35'
M. Slavov
43'
F. Trinks← T. Baumgart
45+3'
D. Stahl↳ A. Winkler
46'
F. Hansch← T. Scheffel
58'
J. Müller← A. Piller
58'
B. Kluft← D. Frahn
61'
M. Slavov↳ J. Koch
65'
S. HainPenalty
68'
Maurice Trapp
72'
T. Steinherr← T. Hagn
73'
Okan Aydin
81'
S. Schimmer← S. Hain
86'
Alexander Winkler

Statistics

SpVggChemnitzer
Overview
4Corners1
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: SpVgg Unterhaching vs Chemnitzer FC

SpVgg Unterhaching beat Chemnitzer FC 4-2 in League #80 on August 26, 2017.

Goals: S. Hain (19', 65' pen), T. Scheffel (34' o.g.), M. Slavov (35', 61'), D. Stahl (45+3').

The match was played at Generali Sportpark in Unterhaching.