SpVgg Greuther Furth 1–1 VfL Osnabruck

SpVgg Greuther Furth

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

VfL Osnabruck

P. Seguin 15'

C. Santos 26'

9/20/2020

2. Bundesliga · Round 1Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth49%

×Draw24%

VfL Osnabruck27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg Greuther FurthExpected goals in this matchVfL Osnabruck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.18

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.69

VfL Osnabruck

1.18

SpVgg Greuther Furth creates 43% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 51 away

1.60

creates per match

1.04

1.31

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.60

VfL Osnabruck

1.04

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.31

VfL Osnabruck

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

VfL Osnabruck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Furth ↓

VfL Osnabruck →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Furth or draw

73%

SpVgg Greuther Furth or VfL Osnabruck

76%

Draw or VfL Osnabruck

51%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

26%

VfL Osnabruck wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

82%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

50%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

24%

VfL Osnabruck 1+ goals

69%

VfL Osnabruck 2+ goals

33%

VfL Osnabruck 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

65%

VfL Osnabruck (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Furth at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.31 · 121 matches

VfL Osnabruck away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.60 + VfL Osnabruck defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.69

VfL Osnabruck attack 1.04 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

49%

level

24%

VfL Osnabruck scores more

27%

SpVgg Greuther Furth at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Furth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

D. Raum

SpVgg Greuther Furth · D

8.0

Match Events

15'

16'

26'

45'

45'

46'

46'

U. Taffertshofer← N. Schmidt

51'

Maximilian Bauer

52'

Ulrich Taffertshofer

60'

E. Amenyido← C. Santos

68'

B. Henning← D. Blacha

76'

A. Stach← P. Seguin

81'

J. Leweling← S. Ernst

89'

D. Abiama← B. Hrgota

90'

Dickson Abiama

90'

Marc Heider

90+2'

S. Klaas← S. Kerk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpVggVfL

Overview

58%Possession42%

21Total Shots15

6Corners6

21Fouls17

Shots

21Total Shots15

4On Target4

14Off Target5

3Blocked6

15Inside Box8

6Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

423Total Passes299

338Accurate Passes208

80%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

21Fouls17

4Yellow Cards3

2. Bundesliga: SpVgg Greuther Furth 1–1 VfL Osnabruck

SpVgg Greuther Furth and VfL Osnabruck drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on September 20, 2020.

Goals: P. Seguin (15'), C. Santos (26').

SpVgg Greuther Furth controlled possession (58%) and registered 21 shots to 15.

The match was played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Fürth.

SpVgg Greuther Furth vs VfL Osnabruck — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

2. Bundesliga: SpVgg Greuther Furth 1–1 VfL Osnabruck