SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–0 SV Elversberg

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SV Elversberg

3/13/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 26Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth38%

×Draw24%

SV Elversberg37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg Greuther FürthExpected goals in this matchSV Elversberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.50

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.52

SV Elversberg

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 51 away

1.63

creates per match

1.57

1.42

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.63

SV Elversberg

1.57

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.42

SV Elversberg

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par

SV Elversberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Fürth ↓

SV Elversberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw

63%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth or SV Elversberg

76%

Draw or SV Elversberg

62%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+

18%

SV Elversberg wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals

78%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals

45%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals

20%

SV Elversberg 1+ goals

78%

SV Elversberg 2+ goals

44%

SV Elversberg 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)

51%

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.42 · 120 matches

SV Elversberg away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.63 + SV Elversberg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

SV Elversberg attack 1.57 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more

38%

level

24%

SV Elversberg scores more

37%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Fürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff