SpVgg Greuther Furth 1–0 Fortuna Dusseldorf

SpVgg Greuther Furth

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fortuna Dusseldorf

11/12/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 13Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth40%

×Draw25%

Fortuna Dusseldorf35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg Greuther FurthExpected goals in this matchFortuna Dusseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.40

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.51

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 102 away

1.63

creates per match

1.38

1.42

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.63

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.38

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.42

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Furth ↓

Fortuna Dusseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Furth or draw

65%

SpVgg Greuther Furth or Fortuna Dusseldorf

75%

Draw or Fortuna Dusseldorf

60%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

19%

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

78%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

44%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

19%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals

75%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals

41%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

53%

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Furth at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.42 · 120 matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.39 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.63 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.51

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.38 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

40%

level

25%

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more

35%

SpVgg Greuther Furth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Furth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff