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Fortuna Dusseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Furth — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SpVgg Greuther Furth
SpVgg Greuther Furth
4/20/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 30Düsseldorf Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf48%
×Draw24%
SpVgg Greuther Furth28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.73
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.28

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 35% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 120 away

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.77
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.25

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.31
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.68

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par
SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

SpVgg Greuther Furth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw
72%
Fortuna Dusseldorf or SpVgg Greuther Furth
76%
Draw or SpVgg Greuther Furth
52%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
26%
SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
82%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
52%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
25%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals
72%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals
37%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
63%
SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.77 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.73

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.25 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
48%
level
24%
SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more
28%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Dusseldorf vs SpVgg Greuther Furth

Fortuna Dusseldorf beat SpVgg Greuther Furth 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Düsseldorf Arena in Düsseldorf.