SpVgg Greuther Furth 2–3 FC Zurich: Result & Stats

SpVgg Greuther Furth

2 – 3

FC Zurich

D. Abiama 78'

D. Srbeny 18'

I. Santini 117'

L. Kamberi 54'

T. Aiyegun 41'

7/14/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Sportzentrum Rum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth29%

×Draw20%

FC Zurich51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg Greuther FurthExpected goals in this matchFC Zurich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.25

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.67

FC Zurich

2.25

FC Zurich creates 35% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.83

creates per match

3.25

1.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.83

FC Zurich

3.25

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.25

FC Zurich

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

FC Zurich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Furth ↓

FC Zurich →

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1–03%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Furth or draw

49%

SpVgg Greuther Furth or FC Zurich

80%

Draw or FC Zurich

71%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

14%

FC Zurich wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

81%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

50%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

23%

FC Zurich 1+ goals

89%

FC Zurich 2+ goals

65%

FC Zurich 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

36%

FC Zurich (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Furth at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

FC Zurich away — creates 3.25, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.83 + FC Zurich defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC Zurich attack 3.25 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

29%

level

20%

FC Zurich scores more

51%

FC Zurich at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Zurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

41'

54'

78'

117'

SpVgg5-3-2

FC3-1-4-2

⚽

⚽

Kaymakci

⚽

Manager: A. Zorniger

Manager: F. Foda

Friendlies Clubs: SpVgg Greuther Furth 2–3 FC Zurich

FC Zurich beat SpVgg Greuther Furth 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 14, 2023.

Goals: D. Srbeny (18'), T. Aiyegun (41'), L. Kamberi (54'), D. Abiama (78'), I. Santini (117').

The match was played at Sportzentrum Rum in Rum.

SpVgg Greuther Furth vs FC Zurich — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: SpVgg Greuther Furth 2–3 FC Zurich