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SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Schalke 04 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
2/28/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 24Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth40%
×Draw24%
FC Schalke 0435%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.54
FC Schalke 04
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 68 away

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.61
FC Schalke 04
1.41

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.42
FC Schalke 04
1.47

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par
FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Fürth ↓

FC Schalke 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw
65%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth or FC Schalke 04
76%
Draw or FC Schalke 04
60%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+
20%
FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals
79%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals
45%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals
20%
FC Schalke 04 1+ goals
76%
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
41%
FC Schalke 04 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)
53%
FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.42 · 119 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.61 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.41 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more
40%
level
24%
FC Schalke 04 scores more
35%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Fürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Schalke 04

SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Schalke 04 drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Furth.