SpVgg Greuther Furth 2–1 FC Kaiserslautern

SpVgg Greuther Furth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Kaiserslautern

R. Wagner 90+5', 53'

R. Ache 18'

4/12/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 29Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth40%

×Draw25%

FC Kaiserslautern36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg Greuther FurthExpected goals in this matchFC Kaiserslautern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.39

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.48

FC Kaiserslautern

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.34

creates per match

1.10

1.67

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.34

FC Kaiserslautern

1.10

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.67

FC Kaiserslautern

1.61

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.06on par

FC Kaiserslautern-0.19scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Furth ↓

FC Kaiserslautern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Furth or draw

64%

SpVgg Greuther Furth or FC Kaiserslautern

75%

Draw or FC Kaiserslautern

60%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

19%

FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

77%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

43%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

19%

FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

75%

FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

40%

FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

53%

FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Furth at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

FC Kaiserslautern away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.34 + FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.10 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

40%

level

25%

FC Kaiserslautern scores more

36%

SpVgg Greuther Furth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Furth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

R. Wagner

SpVgg Greuther Furth · M

8.6

Match Events

3'

8'

18'

46'

46'

T. Raschl← J. Niehues

53'

R. Wagner

62'

P. Hercher← R. Tachie

62'

65'

67'

68'

75'

P. Müller← J. Consbruch

75'

O. Mhamdi← N. Gießelmann

87'

Tobias Raschl

88'

B. Simakala← R. Ache

90'

Dickson Abiama

90+3'

D. Hanslik← M. Ritter

90+5'

R. Wagner↳ B. Hrgota

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpVggFC

Overview

68%Possession32%

8Total Shots10

2Corners4

16Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots10

4On Target3

3Off Target2

1Blocked5

3Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

630Total Passes292

551Accurate Passes201

87%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

8Offsides1