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1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth — 2. Bundesliga 2018

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Kaiserslautern
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
8/9/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 2Fritz-Walter-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern48%
×Draw23%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.77
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.33

1. FC Kaiserslautern creates 33% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 120 away

creates per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.87
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.25

allows per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.41
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.68

finishing

1. FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par
SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Kaiserslautern ↓

SpVgg Greuther Fürth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

1. FC Kaiserslautern or draw
71%
1. FC Kaiserslautern or SpVgg Greuther Fürth
77%
Draw or SpVgg Greuther Fürth
52%

Winning margin

1. FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+
26%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

1. FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals
83%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals
53%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals
26%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals
74%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals
38%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)
62%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.87 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.77

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.25 + 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

1. FC Kaiserslautern scores more
48%
level
23%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more
29%

1. FC Kaiserslautern at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "1. FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth drew 2-2 in 2. Bundesliga on August 9, 2024.

The match was played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion in Kaiserslautern.