Sprockhovel 1–2 Wuppertaler SV: Result & Stats

Sprockhovel

1 – 2

Wuppertaler SV

1/7/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Klein Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sprockhovel44%

×Draw21%

Wuppertaler SV35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SprockhovelExpected goals in this matchWuppertaler SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.92

Sprockhovel

2.17

Wuppertaler SV

1.92

Sprockhovel creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

2.50

creates per match

1.83

2.00

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Sprockhovel

2.50

Wuppertaler SV

1.83

allows per match

Sprockhovel

2.00

Wuppertaler SV

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sprockhovel+0.00on par

Wuppertaler SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sprockhovel ↓

Wuppertaler SV →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Sprockhovel or draw

65%

Sprockhovel or Wuppertaler SV

79%

Draw or Wuppertaler SV

56%

Winning margin

Sprockhovel wins by 2+

25%

Wuppertaler SV wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sprockhovel 1+ goals

89%

Sprockhovel 2+ goals

64%

Sprockhovel 3+ goals

36%

Wuppertaler SV 1+ goals

85%

Wuppertaler SV 2+ goals

57%

Wuppertaler SV 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Sprockhovel (draw refunded)

56%

Wuppertaler SV (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sprockhovel at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Wuppertaler SV away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sprockhovel attack 2.50 + Wuppertaler SV defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.17

Wuppertaler SV attack 1.83 + Sprockhovel defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sprockhovel scores more

44%

level

21%

Wuppertaler SV scores more

35%

Sprockhovel at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sprockhovel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff