Sprockhovel 2–4 Vreden: Result & Stats

Sprockhovel

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Vreden

10/19/2025

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 11Klein Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Sprockhovel45%

×Draw22%

Vreden33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SprockhovelExpected goals in this matchVreden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.63

Sprockhovel

1.93

Vreden

1.63

Sprockhovel creates 18% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 90 away

1.96

creates per match

1.46

1.79

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Sprockhovel

1.96

Vreden

1.46

allows per match

Sprockhovel

1.79

Vreden

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sprockhovel+0.00on par

Vreden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sprockhovel ↓

Vreden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sprockhovel or draw

67%

Sprockhovel or Vreden

78%

Draw or Vreden

55%

Winning margin

Sprockhovel wins by 2+

25%

Vreden wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sprockhovel 1+ goals

85%

Sprockhovel 2+ goals

57%

Sprockhovel 3+ goals

30%

Vreden 1+ goals

80%

Vreden 2+ goals

48%

Vreden 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sprockhovel (draw refunded)

58%

Vreden (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sprockhovel at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.79 · 70 matches

Vreden away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.90 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sprockhovel attack 1.96 + Vreden defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.93

Vreden attack 1.46 + Sprockhovel defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sprockhovel scores more

45%

level

22%

Vreden scores more

33%

Sprockhovel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sprockhovel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff