Sprockhovel 1–1 Victoria Clarholz: Result & Stats

Sprockhovel

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Victoria Clarholz

3/22/2026

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 27Klein Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Sprockhovel46%

×Draw22%

Victoria Clarholz32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SprockhovelExpected goals in this matchVictoria Clarholz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.54

Sprockhovel

1.88

Victoria Clarholz

1.54

Sprockhovel creates 22% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 89 away

1.96

creates per match

1.28

1.79

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Sprockhovel

1.96

Victoria Clarholz

1.28

allows per match

Sprockhovel

1.79

Victoria Clarholz

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sprockhovel+0.00on par

Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sprockhovel ↓

Victoria Clarholz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sprockhovel or draw

68%

Sprockhovel or Victoria Clarholz

78%

Draw or Victoria Clarholz

54%

Winning margin

Sprockhovel wins by 2+

25%

Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sprockhovel 1+ goals

85%

Sprockhovel 2+ goals

56%

Sprockhovel 3+ goals

29%

Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals

79%

Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals

45%

Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sprockhovel (draw refunded)

59%

Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sprockhovel at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.79 · 70 matches

Victoria Clarholz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.79 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sprockhovel attack 1.96 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.88

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.28 + Sprockhovel defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sprockhovel scores more

46%

level

22%

Victoria Clarholz scores more

32%

Sprockhovel at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sprockhovel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff