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Sprockhovel vs TVD Velbert — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sprockhovel
Sprockhovel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
7/30/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sprockhovel36%
×Draw24%
TVD Velbert40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sprockhovel
1.50
TVD Velbert
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sprockhovel
2.33
TVD Velbert
1.33

allows per match

Sprockhovel
1.89
TVD Velbert
0.67

finishing

Sprockhovel+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sprockhovel ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sprockhovel or draw
60%
Sprockhovel or TVD Velbert
76%
Draw or TVD Velbert
64%

Winning margin

Sprockhovel wins by 2+
17%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sprockhovel 1+ goals
78%
Sprockhovel 2+ goals
44%
Sprockhovel 3+ goals
19%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
80%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
48%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sprockhovel (draw refunded)
47%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sprockhovel at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sprockhovel attack 2.33 + TVD Velbert defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

TVD Velbert attack 1.33 + Sprockhovel defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sprockhovel scores more
36%
level
24%
TVD Velbert scores more
40%

TVD Velbert at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "TVD Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Sprockhovel 1–1 TVD Velbert

Sprockhovel and TVD Velbert drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 30, 2022.