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Sprockhovel vs TuS Haltern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sprockhovel
Sprockhovel
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
3/20/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 20Baumhof Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sprockhovel51%
×Draw21%
TuS Haltern29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sprockhovel
2.16
TuS Haltern
1.59

Sprockhovel creates 36% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sprockhovel
1.96
TuS Haltern
1.40

allows per match

Sprockhovel
1.79
TuS Haltern
2.35

finishing

Sprockhovel+0.00on par
TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sprockhovel ↓

TuS Haltern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sprockhovel or draw
71%
Sprockhovel or TuS Haltern
79%
Draw or TuS Haltern
49%

Winning margin

Sprockhovel wins by 2+
30%
TuS Haltern wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sprockhovel 1+ goals
88%
Sprockhovel 2+ goals
63%
Sprockhovel 3+ goals
36%
TuS Haltern 1+ goals
80%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
47%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sprockhovel (draw refunded)
64%
TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sprockhovel at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.79 · 70 matches

TuS Haltern away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sprockhovel attack 1.96 + TuS Haltern defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.16

TuS Haltern attack 1.40 + Sprockhovel defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sprockhovel scores more
51%
level
21%
TuS Haltern scores more
29%

Sprockhovel at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sprockhovel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sprockhovel vs TuS Haltern

Sprockhovel beat TuS Haltern 4-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Baumhof Arena in Sprockhövel.