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Sprockhovel vs TuS Erndtebruck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sprockhovel
Sprockhovel
CANC
13:00
TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
4/5/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 29Baumhof Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sprockhovel55%
×Draw20%
TuS Erndtebruck25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sprockhovel
2.33
TuS Erndtebruck
1.54

Sprockhovel creates 51% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 35 away

creates per match

Sprockhovel
1.96
TuS Erndtebruck
1.29

allows per match

Sprockhovel
1.79
TuS Erndtebruck
2.71

finishing

Sprockhovel+0.00on par
TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sprockhovel ↓

TuS Erndtebruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Sprockhovel or draw
75%
Sprockhovel or TuS Erndtebruck
80%
Draw or TuS Erndtebruck
45%

Winning margin

Sprockhovel wins by 2+
34%
TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sprockhovel 1+ goals
90%
Sprockhovel 2+ goals
67%
Sprockhovel 3+ goals
41%
TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
79%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
45%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sprockhovel (draw refunded)
69%
TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sprockhovel at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.79 · 70 matches

TuS Erndtebruck away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sprockhovel attack 1.96 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.33

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.29 + Sprockhovel defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sprockhovel scores more
55%
level
20%
TuS Erndtebruck scores more
25%

Sprockhovel at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sprockhovel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sprockhovel host TuS Erndtebruck

April 5, 2021: Sprockhovel take on TuS Erndtebruck in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sprockhovel host TuS Erndtebruck at Baumhof Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.