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Sprockhovel vs Türkspor Dortmund — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sprockhovel
Sprockhovel
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Türkspor Dortmund
Türkspor Dortmund
4/26/2026Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 33Klein Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sprockhovel43%
×Draw22%
Türkspor Dortmund35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sprockhovel
1.86
Türkspor Dortmund
1.65

Sprockhovel creates 13% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 35 away

creates per match

Sprockhovel
1.96
Türkspor Dortmund
1.51

allows per match

Sprockhovel
1.79
Türkspor Dortmund
1.77

finishing

Sprockhovel+0.00on par
Türkspor Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sprockhovel ↓

Türkspor Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Sprockhovel or draw
65%
Sprockhovel or Türkspor Dortmund
78%
Draw or Türkspor Dortmund
57%

Winning margin

Sprockhovel wins by 2+
23%
Türkspor Dortmund wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sprockhovel 1+ goals
84%
Sprockhovel 2+ goals
55%
Sprockhovel 3+ goals
28%
Türkspor Dortmund 1+ goals
81%
Türkspor Dortmund 2+ goals
49%
Türkspor Dortmund 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Sprockhovel (draw refunded)
55%
Türkspor Dortmund (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sprockhovel at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.79 · 70 matches

Türkspor Dortmund away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sprockhovel attack 1.96 + Türkspor Dortmund defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.86

Türkspor Dortmund attack 1.51 + Sprockhovel defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sprockhovel scores more
43%
level
22%
Türkspor Dortmund scores more
35%

Sprockhovel at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sprockhovel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Sprockhovel 4–1 Türkspor Dortmund

Sprockhovel beat Türkspor Dortmund 4-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Klein Arena in Sprockhövel.