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Sprockhovel vs SSVg Velbert — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sprockhovel
Sprockhovel
FT
2 – 6
HT: 0 – 1
SSVg Velbert
SSVg Velbert
M. Azzam 53'
E. Morina 50'
B. Ametov 83', 80'
C. Mockschan 73', 55'
R. Hilger 59'
A. Golubytskij 1'
7/12/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sprockhovel36%
×Draw20%
SSVg Velbert45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sprockhovel
2.10
SSVg Velbert
2.35

SSVg Velbert creates 12% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sprockhovel
2.20
SSVg Velbert
2.20

allows per match

Sprockhovel
2.50
SSVg Velbert
2.00

finishing

Sprockhovel+0.00on par
SSVg Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sprockhovel ↓

SSVg Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Sprockhovel or draw
55%
Sprockhovel or SSVg Velbert
80%
Draw or SSVg Velbert
64%

Winning margin

Sprockhovel wins by 2+
19%
SSVg Velbert wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Sprockhovel 1+ goals
88%
Sprockhovel 2+ goals
62%
Sprockhovel 3+ goals
35%
SSVg Velbert 1+ goals
90%
SSVg Velbert 2+ goals
68%
SSVg Velbert 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Sprockhovel (draw refunded)
44%
SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sprockhovel at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

SSVg Velbert away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sprockhovel attack 2.20 + SSVg Velbert defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

SSVg Velbert attack 2.20 + Sprockhovel defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sprockhovel scores more
36%
level
20%
SSVg Velbert scores more
45%

SSVg Velbert at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SSVg Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
A. Golubytskij
50'
E. Morina
53'
M. Azzam
55'
C. Mockschan
59'
R. Hilger
73'
C. Mockschan
80'
B. Ametov
83'
B. Ametov
Sprockhovel
SSVg
A. Balaika
Manager: A. Balaika
D. Claus
Manager: D. Claus

Match Recap: Sprockhovel vs SSVg Velbert

SSVg Velbert beat Sprockhovel 6-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 12, 2026.

Goals: A. Golubytskij (1'), E. Morina (50'), M. Azzam (53'), C. Mockschan (55', 73'), R. Hilger (59'), B. Ametov (80', 83').