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Sprockhovel vs KFC Uerdingen 05 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sprockhovel
Sprockhovel
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
KFC Uerdingen 05
KFC Uerdingen 05
F. Ozturk 65'
E. Morina 59'
C. Topatan 19'
1/22/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sprockhovel49%
×Draw20%
KFC Uerdingen 0530%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sprockhovel
2.25
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.75

Sprockhovel creates 29% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sprockhovel
2.20
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.00

allows per match

Sprockhovel
2.50
KFC Uerdingen 05
2.29

finishing

Sprockhovel+0.00on par
KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sprockhovel ↓

KFC Uerdingen 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Sprockhovel or draw
70%
Sprockhovel or KFC Uerdingen 05
80%
Draw or KFC Uerdingen 05
51%

Winning margin

Sprockhovel wins by 2+
29%
KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sprockhovel 1+ goals
89%
Sprockhovel 2+ goals
65%
Sprockhovel 3+ goals
39%
KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals
83%
KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals
52%
KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sprockhovel (draw refunded)
62%
KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sprockhovel at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

KFC Uerdingen 05 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sprockhovel attack 2.20 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.25

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 1.00 + Sprockhovel defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sprockhovel scores more
49%
level
20%
KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more
30%

Sprockhovel at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sprockhovel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
C. Topatan
59'
E. Morina
65'
F. Ozturk
Sprockhovel
KFC
A. Balaika
Manager: A. Balaika
R. Lewejohann
Manager: R. Lewejohann

Match Recap: Sprockhovel vs KFC Uerdingen 05

Sprockhovel beat KFC Uerdingen 05 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 22, 2026.

Goals: C. Topatan (19'), E. Morina (59'), F. Ozturk (65').