Sprockhovel 0–1 Hammer SpVg: Result & Stats

Sprockhovel

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hammer SpVg

12/10/2021

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 16Baumhof Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sprockhovel56%

×Draw20%

Hammer SpVg23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SprockhovelExpected goals in this matchHammer SpVg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.37

Sprockhovel

2.21

Hammer SpVg

1.37

Sprockhovel creates 61% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 19 away

1.96

creates per match

0.95

1.79

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Sprockhovel

1.96

Hammer SpVg

0.95

allows per match

Sprockhovel

1.79

Hammer SpVg

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sprockhovel+0.00on par

Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sprockhovel ↓

Hammer SpVg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sprockhovel or draw

77%

Sprockhovel or Hammer SpVg

80%

Draw or Hammer SpVg

44%

Winning margin

Sprockhovel wins by 2+

34%

Hammer SpVg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sprockhovel 1+ goals

89%

Sprockhovel 2+ goals

65%

Sprockhovel 3+ goals

38%

Hammer SpVg 1+ goals

75%

Hammer SpVg 2+ goals

40%

Hammer SpVg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sprockhovel (draw refunded)

71%

Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sprockhovel at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.79 · 70 matches

Hammer SpVg away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sprockhovel attack 1.96 + Hammer SpVg defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.21

Hammer SpVg attack 0.95 + Sprockhovel defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sprockhovel scores more

56%

level

20%

Hammer SpVg scores more

23%

Sprockhovel at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sprockhovel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff