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Sprockhovel vs Brunninghausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sprockhovel
Sprockhovel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Brunninghausen
Brunninghausen
9/22/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 7Klein Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sprockhovel52%
×Draw22%
Brunninghausen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sprockhovel
1.92
Brunninghausen
1.27

Sprockhovel creates 51% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sprockhovel
1.96
Brunninghausen
0.76

allows per match

Sprockhovel
1.79
Brunninghausen
1.88

finishing

Sprockhovel+0.00on par
Brunninghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sprockhovel ↓

Brunninghausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sprockhovel or draw
75%
Sprockhovel or Brunninghausen
78%
Draw or Brunninghausen
48%

Winning margin

Sprockhovel wins by 2+
30%
Brunninghausen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sprockhovel 1+ goals
85%
Sprockhovel 2+ goals
57%
Sprockhovel 3+ goals
30%
Brunninghausen 1+ goals
72%
Brunninghausen 2+ goals
36%
Brunninghausen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sprockhovel (draw refunded)
67%
Brunninghausen (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sprockhovel at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.79 · 70 matches

Brunninghausen away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sprockhovel attack 1.96 + Brunninghausen defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.92

Brunninghausen attack 0.76 + Sprockhovel defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sprockhovel scores more
52%
level
22%
Brunninghausen scores more
25%

Sprockhovel at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sprockhovel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Sprockhovel 1–1 Brunninghausen

Sprockhovel and Brunninghausen drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 22, 2023.

The match was played at Klein Arena in Sprockhövel.