Sprint-Jeløy 1–1 Mjølner: Result & Stats

Sprint-Jeløy

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mjølner

5/5/2024

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 5Bellevue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sprint-Jeløy32%

×Draw22%

Mjølner46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sprint-JeløyExpected goals in this matchMjølner

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.94

Sprint-Jeløy

1.58

Mjølner

1.94

Mjølner creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

1.00

creates per match

1.57

2.31

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Sprint-Jeløy

1.00

Mjølner

1.57

allows per match

Sprint-Jeløy

2.31

Mjølner

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sprint-Jeløy+0.00on par

Mjølner+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sprint-Jeløy ↓

Mjølner →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Sprint-Jeløy or draw

54%

Sprint-Jeløy or Mjølner

78%

Draw or Mjølner

68%

Winning margin

Sprint-Jeløy wins by 2+

15%

Mjølner wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Sprint-Jeløy 1+ goals

79%

Sprint-Jeløy 2+ goals

47%

Sprint-Jeløy 3+ goals

21%

Mjølner 1+ goals

86%

Mjølner 2+ goals

58%

Mjølner 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Sprint-Jeløy (draw refunded)

41%

Mjølner (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sprint-Jeløy at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Mjølner away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sprint-Jeløy attack 1.00 + Mjølner defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Mjølner attack 1.57 + Sprint-Jeløy defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sprint-Jeløy scores more

32%

level

22%

Mjølner scores more

46%

Mjølner at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mjølner will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff