Sprint-Jeløy 3–2 Mandalskameratene: Result & Stats

Sprint-Jeløy

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Mandalskameratene

6/18/2022

3. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 11Bellevue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sprint-Jeløy49%

×Draw21%

Mandalskameratene31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sprint-JeløyExpected goals in this matchMandalskameratene

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.73

Sprint-Jeløy

2.22

Mandalskameratene

1.73

Sprint-Jeløy creates 28% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

2.35

creates per match

2.09

1.38

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Sprint-Jeløy

2.35

Mandalskameratene

2.09

allows per match

Sprint-Jeløy

1.38

Mandalskameratene

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sprint-Jeløy+0.00on par

Mandalskameratene+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sprint-Jeløy ↓

Mandalskameratene →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Sprint-Jeløy or draw

69%

Sprint-Jeløy or Mandalskameratene

79%

Draw or Mandalskameratene

51%

Winning margin

Sprint-Jeløy wins by 2+

29%

Mandalskameratene wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sprint-Jeløy 1+ goals

89%

Sprint-Jeløy 2+ goals

65%

Sprint-Jeløy 3+ goals

38%

Mandalskameratene 1+ goals

82%

Mandalskameratene 2+ goals

52%

Mandalskameratene 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Sprint-Jeløy (draw refunded)

62%

Mandalskameratene (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sprint-Jeløy at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Mandalskameratene away — creates 2.09, concedes 2.09 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sprint-Jeløy attack 2.35 + Mandalskameratene defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.22

Mandalskameratene attack 2.09 + Sprint-Jeløy defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sprint-Jeløy scores more

49%

level

21%

Mandalskameratene scores more

31%

Sprint-Jeløy at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sprint-Jeløy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff