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Springvale vs Kingston City — Victoria Premier League 2 2026

Springvale
Springvale
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Kingston City
Kingston City
4/24/2026Victoria Premier League 2Victoria Premier League 2 · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Springvale57%
×Draw22%
Kingston City21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Springvale
1.99
Kingston City
1.14

Springvale creates 75% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Springvale
1.60
Kingston City
0.88

allows per match

Springvale
1.40
Kingston City
2.38

finishing

Springvale+0.00on par
Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Springvale ↓

Kingston City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Springvale or draw
79%
Springvale or Kingston City
78%
Draw or Kingston City
43%

Winning margin

Springvale wins by 2+
34%
Kingston City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Springvale 1+ goals
86%
Springvale 2+ goals
59%
Springvale 3+ goals
32%
Kingston City 1+ goals
68%
Kingston City 2+ goals
32%
Kingston City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Springvale (draw refunded)
73%
Kingston City (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Springvale at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Kingston City away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Springvale attack 1.60 + Kingston City defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.99

Kingston City attack 0.88 + Springvale defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Springvale scores more
57%
level
22%
Kingston City scores more
21%

Springvale at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Springvale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria Premier League 2: Springvale 3–2 Kingston City

Springvale beat Kingston City 3-2 in Victoria Premier League 2 on April 24, 2026.