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Springfield ASC vs Wichita — USL League Two 2018

Springfield ASC
Springfield ASC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wichita
Wichita
5/22/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 10Sacred Heart-Griffin High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Springfield ASC38%
×Draw21%
Wichita41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Springfield ASC
1.88
Wichita
1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

creates per match

Springfield ASC
0.92
Wichita
0.78

allows per match

Springfield ASC
3.15
Wichita
2.83

finishing

Springfield ASC+0.00on par
Wichita+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Springfield ASC ↓

Wichita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Springfield ASC or draw
59%
Springfield ASC or Wichita
79%
Draw or Wichita
62%

Winning margin

Springfield ASC wins by 2+
20%
Wichita wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Springfield ASC 1+ goals
85%
Springfield ASC 2+ goals
56%
Springfield ASC 3+ goals
29%
Wichita 1+ goals
86%
Wichita 2+ goals
58%
Wichita 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Springfield ASC (draw refunded)
48%
Wichita (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Springfield ASC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Wichita away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Springfield ASC attack 0.92 + Wichita defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.88

Wichita attack 0.78 + Springfield ASC defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Springfield ASC scores more
38%
level
21%
Wichita scores more
41%

Wichita at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wichita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Springfield ASC vs Wichita

Springfield ASC beat Wichita 1-0 in USL League Two on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Sacred Heart-Griffin High School in Springfield, Illinois.