Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Springfield ASC vs Kaw Valley — USL League Two 2018

Springfield ASC
Springfield ASC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
5/29/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 18Sacred Heart-Griffin High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Springfield ASC20%
×Draw20%
Kaw Valley60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Springfield ASC
1.21
Kaw Valley
2.21

Kaw Valley creates 83% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

creates per match

Springfield ASC
0.92
Kaw Valley
1.28

allows per match

Springfield ASC
3.15
Kaw Valley
1.50

finishing

Springfield ASC+0.00on par
Kaw Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Springfield ASC ↓

Kaw Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Springfield ASC or draw
40%
Springfield ASC or Kaw Valley
80%
Draw or Kaw Valley
80%

Winning margin

Springfield ASC wins by 2+
8%
Kaw Valley wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Springfield ASC 1+ goals
70%
Springfield ASC 2+ goals
34%
Springfield ASC 3+ goals
12%
Kaw Valley 1+ goals
89%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
65%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Springfield ASC (draw refunded)
25%
Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Springfield ASC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Kaw Valley away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Springfield ASC attack 0.92 + Kaw Valley defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.21

Kaw Valley attack 1.28 + Springfield ASC defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Springfield ASC scores more
20%
level
20%
Kaw Valley scores more
60%

Kaw Valley at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kaw Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Springfield ASC vs Kaw Valley

Springfield ASC and Kaw Valley drew 1-1 in USL League Two on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Sacred Heart-Griffin High School in Springfield, Illinois.