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Springfield ASC vs Des Moines Menace — USL League Two 2018

Springfield ASC
Springfield ASC
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menace
6/15/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 9Sacred Heart-Griffin High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Springfield ASC11%
×Draw15%
Des Moines Menace74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Springfield ASC
0.93
Des Moines Menace
2.71

Des Moines Menace creates 191% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 41 away

creates per match

Springfield ASC
0.92
Des Moines Menace
2.27

allows per match

Springfield ASC
3.15
Des Moines Menace
0.93

finishing

Springfield ASC+0.00on par
Des Moines Menace+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Springfield ASC ↓

Des Moines Menace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–210%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Springfield ASC or draw
26%
Springfield ASC or Des Moines Menace
85%
Draw or Des Moines Menace
89%

Winning margin

Springfield ASC wins by 2+
3%
Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Springfield ASC 1+ goals
61%
Springfield ASC 2+ goals
24%
Springfield ASC 3+ goals
7%
Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
93%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
75%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Springfield ASC (draw refunded)
12%
Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Springfield ASC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Des Moines Menace away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Springfield ASC attack 0.92 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Des Moines Menace attack 2.27 + Springfield ASC defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Springfield ASC scores more
11%
level
15%
Des Moines Menace scores more
74%

Des Moines Menace at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Springfield ASC 0 – 6 Des Moines Menace

Des Moines Menace beat Springfield ASC 6-0 in USL League Two on June 15, 2023.

The match was played at Sacred Heart-Griffin High School in Springfield, Illinois.