Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Spratzern vs USC Rohrbach — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Spratzern
Spratzern
FT
0 – 1
USC Rohrbach
USC Rohrbach
11/6/2021Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 13Sportplatz ASV Ofenbinder Spratzern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Spratzern41%
×Draw25%
USC Rohrbach34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spratzern
1.54
USC Rohrbach
1.38

Spratzern creates 12% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 71 away

creates per match

Spratzern
1.15
USC Rohrbach
1.06

allows per match

Spratzern
1.70
USC Rohrbach
1.94

finishing

Spratzern+0.00on par
USC Rohrbach+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spratzern ↓

USC Rohrbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Spratzern or draw
66%
Spratzern or USC Rohrbach
75%
Draw or USC Rohrbach
59%

Winning margin

Spratzern wins by 2+
20%
USC Rohrbach wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Spratzern 1+ goals
79%
Spratzern 2+ goals
45%
Spratzern 3+ goals
20%
USC Rohrbach 1+ goals
75%
USC Rohrbach 2+ goals
40%
USC Rohrbach 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Spratzern (draw refunded)
55%
USC Rohrbach (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spratzern at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

USC Rohrbach away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.94 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spratzern attack 1.15 + USC Rohrbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.54

USC Rohrbach attack 1.06 + Spratzern defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spratzern scores more
41%
level
25%
USC Rohrbach scores more
34%

Spratzern at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spratzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Niederosterreich: Spratzern 0–1 USC Rohrbach

USC Rohrbach beat Spratzern 1-0 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz ASV Ofenbinder Spratzern in St. Pölten.