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Spratzern vs St. Pölten II — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Spratzern
Spratzern
FT
1 – 1
St. Pölten II
St. Pölten II
6/2/2023Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 28Sportplatz ASV Ofenbinder Spratzern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Spratzern34%
×Draw24%
St. Pölten II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spratzern
1.47
St. Pölten II
1.67

St. Pölten II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 85 away

creates per match

Spratzern
1.15
St. Pölten II
1.65

allows per match

Spratzern
1.70
St. Pölten II
1.79

finishing

Spratzern+0.00on par
St. Pölten II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spratzern ↓

St. Pölten II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Spratzern or draw
58%
Spratzern or St. Pölten II
76%
Draw or St. Pölten II
66%

Winning margin

Spratzern wins by 2+
16%
St. Pölten II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Spratzern 1+ goals
77%
Spratzern 2+ goals
43%
Spratzern 3+ goals
18%
St. Pölten II 1+ goals
81%
St. Pölten II 2+ goals
50%
St. Pölten II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Spratzern (draw refunded)
44%
St. Pölten II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spratzern at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

St. Pölten II away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.79 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spratzern attack 1.15 + St. Pölten II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.47

St. Pölten II attack 1.65 + Spratzern defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spratzern scores more
34%
level
24%
St. Pölten II scores more
42%

St. Pölten II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "St. Pölten II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spratzern vs St. Pölten II

Spratzern and St. Pölten II drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on June 2, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz ASV Ofenbinder Spratzern in St. Pölten.