Spratzern 0–1 Kilb: Result & Stats

Spratzern

FT

0 – 1

Kilb

5/21/2023

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 26Sportplatz ASV Ofenbinder Spratzern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Spratzern38%

×Draw25%

Kilb37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpratzernExpected goals in this matchKilb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.45

Spratzern

1.46

Kilb

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 87 away

1.15

creates per match

1.20

1.70

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Spratzern

1.15

Kilb

1.20

allows per match

Spratzern

1.70

Kilb

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spratzern+0.00on par

Kilb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spratzern ↓

Kilb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Spratzern or draw

63%

Spratzern or Kilb

75%

Draw or Kilb

62%

Winning margin

Spratzern wins by 2+

18%

Kilb wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Spratzern 1+ goals

77%

Spratzern 2+ goals

43%

Spratzern 3+ goals

18%

Kilb 1+ goals

77%

Kilb 2+ goals

42%

Kilb 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Spratzern (draw refunded)

50%

Kilb (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spratzern at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Kilb away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.77 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spratzern attack 1.15 + Kilb defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.46

Kilb attack 1.20 + Spratzern defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spratzern scores more

38%

level

25%

Kilb scores more

37%

Spratzern at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spratzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff