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Spratzern vs Ardagger — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Spratzern
Spratzern
CANC
15:30
Ardagger
Ardagger
6/13/2021Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 30Sportplatz ASV Ofenbinder Spratzern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Spratzern29%
×Draw26%
Ardagger45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spratzern
1.13
Ardagger
1.47

Ardagger creates 30% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 70 away

creates per match

Spratzern
1.15
Ardagger
1.24

allows per match

Spratzern
1.70
Ardagger
1.11

finishing

Spratzern+0.00on par
Ardagger+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spratzern ↓

Ardagger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Spratzern or draw
55%
Spratzern or Ardagger
74%
Draw or Ardagger
71%

Winning margin

Spratzern wins by 2+
12%
Ardagger wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Spratzern 1+ goals
68%
Spratzern 2+ goals
31%
Spratzern 3+ goals
11%
Ardagger 1+ goals
77%
Ardagger 2+ goals
43%
Ardagger 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Spratzern (draw refunded)
39%
Ardagger (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spratzern at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Ardagger away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spratzern attack 1.15 + Ardagger defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ardagger attack 1.24 + Spratzern defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spratzern scores more
29%
level
26%
Ardagger scores more
45%

Ardagger at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ardagger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Spratzern host Ardagger

June 13, 2021: Spratzern take on Ardagger in Landesliga - Niederosterreich. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Spratzern host Ardagger at Sportplatz ASV Ofenbinder Spratzern.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.