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Sportul Snagov vs Uta Arad — Liga II 2018

Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
FT
0 – 3
Uta Arad
Uta Arad
3/7/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 24Stadionul Voinţa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sportul Snagov34%
×Draw26%
Uta Arad40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportul Snagov
1.29
Uta Arad
1.42

Uta Arad creates 10% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sportul Snagov
1.26
Uta Arad
1.45

allows per match

Sportul Snagov
1.39
Uta Arad
1.33

finishing

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par
Uta Arad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportul Snagov ↓

Uta Arad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sportul Snagov or draw
60%
Sportul Snagov or Uta Arad
74%
Draw or Uta Arad
66%

Winning margin

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
15%
Uta Arad wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
72%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
37%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
14%
Uta Arad 1+ goals
76%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
41%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
46%
Uta Arad (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportul Snagov at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportul Snagov attack 1.26 + Uta Arad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Uta Arad attack 1.45 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportul Snagov scores more
34%
level
26%
Uta Arad scores more
40%

Uta Arad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Sportul Snagov 0–3 Uta Arad

Uta Arad beat Sportul Snagov 3-0 in Liga II on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Voinţa in Ghermăneşti.