Sportul Snagov 1–1 Ripensia Timisoara

Sportul Snagov

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ripensia Timisoara

9/8/2018

Liga II · Round 6Stadionul Voinţa (Ghermăneşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sportul Snagov41%

×Draw26%

Ripensia Timisoara33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportul SnagovExpected goals in this matchRipensia Timisoara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.21

Sportul Snagov

1.38

Ripensia Timisoara

1.21

Sportul Snagov creates 14% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 70 away

1.26

creates per match

1.03

1.39

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Sportul Snagov

1.26

Ripensia Timisoara

1.03

allows per match

Sportul Snagov

1.39

Ripensia Timisoara

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportul Snagov ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sportul Snagov or draw

67%

Sportul Snagov or Ripensia Timisoara

74%

Draw or Ripensia Timisoara

59%

Winning margin

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+

19%

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals

75%

Sportul Snagov 2+ goals

40%

Sportul Snagov 3+ goals

16%

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals

70%

Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals

34%

Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)

55%

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportul Snagov at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportul Snagov attack 1.26 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sportul Snagov scores more

41%

level

26%

Ripensia Timisoara scores more

33%

Sportul Snagov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sportul Snagov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff