Sportul Snagov 1–0 Farul Constanta: Result & Stats

Sportul Snagov

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Farul Constanta

8/26/2018

Liga II · Round 4Stadionul Voinţa (Ghermăneşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sportul Snagov41%

×Draw27%

Farul Constanta33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportul SnagovExpected goals in this matchFarul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.17

Sportul Snagov

1.34

Farul Constanta

1.17

Sportul Snagov creates 15% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 45 away

1.26

creates per match

0.96

1.39

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Sportul Snagov

1.26

Farul Constanta

0.96

allows per match

Sportul Snagov

1.39

Farul Constanta

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportul Snagov ↓

Farul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sportul Snagov or draw

67%

Sportul Snagov or Farul Constanta

73%

Draw or Farul Constanta

59%

Winning margin

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+

19%

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals

74%

Sportul Snagov 2+ goals

39%

Sportul Snagov 3+ goals

15%

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

69%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

33%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)

56%

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportul Snagov at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportul Snagov attack 1.26 + Farul Constanta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Farul Constanta attack 0.96 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sportul Snagov scores more

41%

level

27%

Farul Constanta scores more

33%

Sportul Snagov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sportul Snagov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff