Sportlust '46 0–3 SteDoCo: Result & Stats

Sportlust '46

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

SteDoCo

3/25/2023

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 26Sportpark Cromwijck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sportlust '4646%

×Draw23%

SteDoCo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportlust '46Expected goals in this matchSteDoCo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.48

Sportlust '46

1.82

SteDoCo

1.48

Sportlust '46 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 48 away

1.93

creates per match

1.77

1.19

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Sportlust '46

1.93

SteDoCo

1.77

allows per match

Sportlust '46

1.19

SteDoCo

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportlust '46+0.00on par

SteDoCo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportlust '46 ↓

SteDoCo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sportlust '46 or draw

68%

Sportlust '46 or SteDoCo

77%

Draw or SteDoCo

54%

Winning margin

Sportlust '46 wins by 2+

25%

SteDoCo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sportlust '46 1+ goals

84%

Sportlust '46 2+ goals

54%

Sportlust '46 3+ goals

27%

SteDoCo 1+ goals

77%

SteDoCo 2+ goals

43%

SteDoCo 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sportlust '46 (draw refunded)

59%

SteDoCo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportlust '46 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.19 · 70 matches

SteDoCo away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.71 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportlust '46 attack 1.93 + SteDoCo defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.82

SteDoCo attack 1.77 + Sportlust '46 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sportlust '46 scores more

46%

level

23%

SteDoCo scores more

32%

Sportlust '46 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sportlust '46 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff