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Sportlust '46 vs OJC Rosmalen — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Sportlust '46
Sportlust '46
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
OJC Rosmalen
OJC Rosmalen
9/16/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 5Sportpark Cromwijck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sportlust '4654%
×Draw22%
OJC Rosmalen23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportlust '46
1.89
OJC Rosmalen
1.17

Sportlust '46 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sportlust '46
1.94
OJC Rosmalen
1.45

allows per match

Sportlust '46
0.88
OJC Rosmalen
1.84

finishing

Sportlust '46+0.00on par
OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportlust '46 ↓

OJC Rosmalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sportlust '46 or draw
77%
Sportlust '46 or OJC Rosmalen
78%
Draw or OJC Rosmalen
46%

Winning margin

Sportlust '46 wins by 2+
31%
OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sportlust '46 1+ goals
85%
Sportlust '46 2+ goals
56%
Sportlust '46 3+ goals
29%
OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals
69%
OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals
33%
OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sportlust '46 (draw refunded)
70%
OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportlust '46 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

OJC Rosmalen away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportlust '46 attack 1.94 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.89

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.45 + Sportlust '46 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sportlust '46 scores more
54%
level
22%
OJC Rosmalen scores more
23%

Sportlust '46 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sportlust '46 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportlust '46 vs OJC Rosmalen

Sportlust '46 beat OJC Rosmalen 4-2 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Cromwijck in Woerden.