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Sportivo Trinidense vs Tacuary — Division Intermedia 2026

Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense
FT
2 – 2
Tacuary
Tacuary
9/1/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 25Estadio Martín Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Sportivo Trinidense45%
×Draw27%
Tacuary29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Trinidense
1.42
Tacuary
1.08

Sportivo Trinidense creates 31% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 40 away

creates per match

Sportivo Trinidense
1.45
Tacuary
1.27

allows per match

Sportivo Trinidense
0.90
Tacuary
1.40

finishing

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par
Tacuary+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Trinidense ↓

Tacuary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sportivo Trinidense or draw
71%
Sportivo Trinidense or Tacuary
73%
Draw or Tacuary
55%

Winning margin

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+
22%
Tacuary wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals
76%
Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals
41%
Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals
17%
Tacuary 1+ goals
66%
Tacuary 2+ goals
29%
Tacuary 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)
61%
Tacuary (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Trinidense at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.90 · 62 matches

Tacuary away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.45 + Tacuary defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tacuary attack 1.27 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sportivo Trinidense scores more
45%
level
27%
Tacuary scores more
29%

Sportivo Trinidense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Trinidense vs Tacuary

Sportivo Trinidense and Tacuary drew 2-2 in Division Intermedia on September 1, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Martín Torres in Asunción.