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Sportivo Trinidense vs Ovetense FC — Division Intermedia 2018

Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense
FT
0 – 0
Ovetense FC
Ovetense FC
8/17/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 17Estadio Martín Torres (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sportivo Trinidense53%
×Draw25%
Ovetense FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Trinidense
1.57
Ovetense FC
0.90

Sportivo Trinidense creates 74% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sportivo Trinidense
1.45
Ovetense FC
0.90

allows per match

Sportivo Trinidense
0.90
Ovetense FC
1.70

finishing

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par
Ovetense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Trinidense ↓

Ovetense FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sportivo Trinidense or draw
78%
Sportivo Trinidense or Ovetense FC
75%
Draw or Ovetense FC
47%

Winning margin

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+
28%
Ovetense FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals
79%
Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals
46%
Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals
21%
Ovetense FC 1+ goals
59%
Ovetense FC 2+ goals
23%
Ovetense FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)
71%
Ovetense FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Trinidense at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.90 · 62 matches

Ovetense FC away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.45 + Ovetense FC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ovetense FC attack 0.90 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sportivo Trinidense scores more
53%
level
25%
Ovetense FC scores more
22%

Sportivo Trinidense at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Trinidense vs Ovetense FC

Sportivo Trinidense and Ovetense FC drew 0-0 in Division Intermedia on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Martín Torres (Asunción).