Sportivo Trinidense 3–1 Martin Ledesma

Sportivo Trinidense

FT

3 – 1

Martin Ledesma

6/8/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 14Estadio Martín Torres (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Sportivo Trinidense49%

×Draw27%

Martin Ledesma24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo TrinidenseExpected goals in this matchMartin Ledesma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.89

Sportivo Trinidense

1.40

Martin Ledesma

0.89

Sportivo Trinidense creates 57% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 61 away

1.45

creates per match

0.87

0.90

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Sportivo Trinidense

1.45

Martin Ledesma

0.87

allows per match

Sportivo Trinidense

0.90

Martin Ledesma

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Trinidense ↓

Martin Ledesma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sportivo Trinidense or draw

76%

Sportivo Trinidense or Martin Ledesma

73%

Draw or Martin Ledesma

51%

Winning margin

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+

24%

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals

75%

Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals

41%

Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals

17%

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals

59%

Martin Ledesma 2+ goals

22%

Martin Ledesma 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)

67%

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Trinidense at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.90 · 62 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.45 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sportivo Trinidense scores more

49%

level

27%

Martin Ledesma scores more

24%

Sportivo Trinidense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff