Sportivo Trinidense 1–1 General Caballero

Sportivo Trinidense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

General Caballero

5/23/2024

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 19Estadio Martín Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sportivo Trinidense46%

×Draw28%

General Caballero26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo TrinidenseExpected goals in this matchGeneral Caballero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.92

Sportivo Trinidense

1.33

General Caballero

0.92

Sportivo Trinidense creates 45% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

1.36

creates per match

0.89

0.95

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Sportivo Trinidense

1.36

General Caballero

0.89

allows per match

Sportivo Trinidense

0.95

General Caballero

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

General Caballero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Trinidense ↓

General Caballero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sportivo Trinidense or draw

74%

Sportivo Trinidense or General Caballero

72%

Draw or General Caballero

54%

Winning margin

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+

22%

General Caballero wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals

74%

Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals

38%

Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals

15%

General Caballero 1+ goals

60%

General Caballero 2+ goals

23%

General Caballero 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)

64%

General Caballero (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Trinidense at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

General Caballero away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.36 + General Caballero defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

General Caballero attack 0.89 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sportivo Trinidense scores more

46%

level

28%

General Caballero scores more

26%

Sportivo Trinidense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff