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Sportivo Trinidense vs Deportivo Caaguazu — Division Intermedia 2018

Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense
FT
4 – 0
Deportivo Caaguazu
Deportivo Caaguazu
9/29/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 23Estadio Martín Torres (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sportivo Trinidense58%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Caaguazu18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Trinidense
1.69
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.81

Sportivo Trinidense creates 109% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sportivo Trinidense
1.45
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.73

allows per match

Sportivo Trinidense
0.90
Deportivo Caaguazu
1.93

finishing

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par
Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Trinidense ↓

Deportivo Caaguazu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sportivo Trinidense or draw
82%
Sportivo Trinidense or Deportivo Caaguazu
76%
Draw or Deportivo Caaguazu
42%

Winning margin

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+
32%
Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals
82%
Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals
50%
Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals
24%
Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals
56%
Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals
19%
Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)
77%
Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Trinidense at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.90 · 62 matches

Deportivo Caaguazu away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.45 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.69

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 0.73 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sportivo Trinidense scores more
58%
level
24%
Deportivo Caaguazu scores more
18%

Sportivo Trinidense at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Trinidense vs Deportivo Caaguazu

Sportivo Trinidense beat Deportivo Caaguazu 4-0 in Division Intermedia on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Martín Torres (Asunción).