Sportivo Trinidense 1–1 Club Guarani

Sportivo Trinidense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Club Guarani

M. Centurion 90'

F. Fernandez 48'

9/26/2025

League #252 · Clausura - 14Estadio Martín Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sportivo Trinidense17%

×Draw30%

Club Guarani53%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo TrinidenseExpected goals in this matchClub Guarani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.55

1.23

Sportivo Trinidense

0.55

Club Guarani

1.23

Club Guarani creates 124% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

0.33

creates per match

1.46

1.00

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Sportivo Trinidense

0.33

Club Guarani

1.46

allows per match

Sportivo Trinidense

1.00

Club Guarani

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Trinidense ↓

Club Guarani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–121%

0–213%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Sportivo Trinidense or draw

47%

Sportivo Trinidense or Club Guarani

70%

Draw or Club Guarani

83%

Winning margin

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+

4%

Club Guarani wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals

42%

Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals

11%

Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals

2%

Club Guarani 1+ goals

71%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

35%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)

24%

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Trinidense at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Club Guarani away — creates 1.46, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Trinidense attack 0.33 + Club Guarani defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.55

Club Guarani attack 1.46 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sportivo Trinidense scores more

17%

level

30%

Club Guarani scores more

53%

Club Guarani at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

L. Martinez

Club Guarani · M

7.7

Match Events

17'

Agustín ManzurCard reviewed

48'

F. Fernandez↳ L. Martinez

54'

T. Servin← P. Coronel

54'

R. Torales← I. Ramirez

58'

Luis Martinez

64'

R. Baez Mendoza← T. Rayer

64'

O. Gimenez← N. Camacho

64'

J. Roman← P. Zarza

70'

Oscar Gimenez

74'

N. Gauto← G. Viera

74'

J. Salcedo← L. De la Cruz

81'

A. Maiz← F. Fernandez

89'

V. Cabanas← A. J. Benitez Cabrera

89'

L. Gomez← A. Manzur

90'

M. Centurion↳ S. Mendoza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportivoClub

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots10

0.97Expected Goals (xG)1.21

6Corners2

14Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots10

2On Target2

5Off Target5

1Blocked3

5Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

303Total Passes321

182Accurate Passes226

60%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2